The markets, judged one by one

Prop-firm challenge: should a beginner start here?

The door where the ticket is not the cost. The attempts are.

Facts checked on October 22, 2026

The computed numbers for this door

Cheapest serious door in the dated dataset: FTMO (US, via OANDA) 2-Step, $10,000 account, list price — a $99 ticket, list price. FPFX Technology dataset, 300,000+ prop-firm accounts, reported by Finance Magnates (2024): about 14% of buyers reach the funded stage, and about 45% of those ever receive a payout — about 7 buyers in 100 are ever paid.

Expected fees to reach the funded stage: $99 ÷ 14% ≈ $707. Expected fees per buyer who ever reaches a first payout: $99 ÷ 6.3% ≈ $1,571. The average payout, when one happens, is about 4% of the account size — about $3,200 to the trader on a $100,000 account after the standard split. Compare the two numbers before any ticket.

Who this door is for

You already have a logged demo record traded under rules like the challenge's — profit target, daily loss limit, maximum drawdown — because that is the test being sold, and it can be rehearsed for free.
Your capital honestly covers the expected cost of the series, not one ticket: about $1,571 in expected fees per buyer who ever reaches a first payout, on the published base rates.

Who it is not for

You have never traded on a demo under written rules. Paying to discover whether you can pass a rules test, when the same test is free to rehearse, is buying a question you can answer this week for $0.
Your budget is one ticket. At the published 14% funded rate, the average buyer needs about seven attempts to reach the funded stage; a one-ticket budget buys the start of a series it cannot finish.

The trap in this door

Three traps, all documented. First, the denominator switch: firms quote the share of people who pass at least once (repeat buyers included) where the beginner needs the share of buyers ever paid — about 7 in 100 on the only multi-firm dataset. Second, the rule switch: at the biggest firm, news trading is unrestricted during evaluation but can end a funded account; consistency rules can make a winning trader ineligible for payout after the target is hit. Third, the account itself: a 'funded account' is a simulated account at nearly every firm — you are paid by contract, at the firm's discretion, under rules that can differ between the test and the job.

The first honest step

Run the checker with the prop-firm door selected: it prints the two thresholds — expected cost to funded (≈ $707) and to a first payout (≈ $1,571) — against your capital. Then rehearse the exact rules of the program you are eyeing on a free demo for 20 sessions before any ticket.

Run the checker with your numbers See the full dataset

The family · ChallengeOdds

Judging one named challenge?

The full challenge verdict — expected cost to first payout, style check — lives at ChallengeOdds: pick the firm and the program, and the checker prices the whole attempt series and reads the funded-stage rulebook before your money meets it.

Before you start, take the whole path

The verdict gives you the arithmetic for your market and your capital. The Start-or-Wait Kit gives you the complete workbook: the demo-record audit (the 50-trade review grid), the staged capital plan up to your market's minimum viable capital, the 90-day learning plan week by week, and the real-cost tracker — the spreadsheet experienced traders build by hand, ready to fill in.

Included in the $39 Start-or-Wait Kit

See the Start-or-Wait Kit

Sources: FINRA Regulatory Notice 26-10 (April 20, 2026) and the brokers' own pages for the PDT tracker; ESMA Decision (EU) 2018/796 and the AMF restatement for European CFD loss figures; ASIC Report 828 (FY2023–24) for Australia; CFTC retail forex materials for the United States; Barber, Lee, Liu & Odean (Taiwan market data) and Chague & De Losso (Brazil) for day-trading outcomes; the FPFX Technology dataset of 300,000+ prop-firm accounts, reported by Finance Magnates (2024); broker-published minimum deposits and margin schedules as dated on the dataset page. If a figure has moved since our check date, the issuer's own publication wins — and write to help@doogex.com so we can correct ours.